2018 Oscar Predictions

Today’s the day! The 2018 Academy Awards are tonight, and I couldn’t be more excited. While I’m looking forward to the award show itself, I have some mixed feelings about some of the nominees expected to win. Just in case you weren’t sure, I’m still pulling for Lady Bird. So, without further ado, here are my predicts for a few of my favorite categories.

Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will win: The Shape of Water. All season long it’s been either The Shape of Water or Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri winning Best Picture at the various awards. It’s definitely a tight race between two of the most-talked-about films, but I think Guillermo Del Toro’s love story will edge out the competition.

Should win: Lady Bird or Get Out. Two of my absolute favorite films of the year might not have as much of a chance of winning as the previous films but that sure is a shame. Get Out may be a surprise spoiler, but it doesn’t look like Lady Bird will come out on top. *Cue Dave Matthews Band’s “Crash into Me”*

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Will win: Gary Oldman. This category really disappoints me. There’s almost no question that Oldman will win for his portrayal of Winston Churchill, but I don’t consider it to be his best performance. I definitely prefer his performance in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy than in the boring Darkest Hour. It’s also interesting that no one has discussed the beloved actor’s history of alleged domestic abuse hasn’t seemed to deter his winning streak. When he wins, I wouldn’t be surprised if he receives the same backlash Casey Affleck received shortly after winning his Oscar last year for Manchester by the Sea.

 

Should Win: Timothée Chalamet. The up and coming actor gave the best performance of the year, but he’s likely to go home empty-handed. British actor, Daniel Kaluuya is just as good Chalamet in Get Out, but he too is not expected to be named the winner. Day-Lewis’ performance may not be his best but it’s definitely still one of the best of the year. Basically, I would be happy if anyone else in this category won.

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Will win: Frances McDormand. McDormand is pretty much a lock. She was undeniably the best part of Three Billboards, but, similarly to Oldman, it’s not her best performance and not the best of the year. Even though I don’t want her to win, how can I not love Frances McDormand?

Should win: Saoirse Ronan. I’ve been trying to mentally prepare myself to not see Ronan win but I’ve been unsuccessful. The actress who plays the titular role in Lady Bird is the actor of my generation, giving outstanding performances you don’t often see from actors who have been around for decades, and a 3-time Oscar nominee before she’s even 25. And yet, she isn’t going to be recognized for a performance that demanded so much but looked effortless. Like McDormand said after winning at the SAG Awards this year, “Give some of these young ones a doorstop.”

Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will win: Sam Rockwell. Rockwell has won every high-profile award this season and his winning streak isn’t going to stop tonight. So, I don’t think his performance was bad, at all. That said, it wasn’t that interesting. His character is the same flashy, boisterous character that’s in most films that in a way masquerades as being something never seen before.

Should win: Willem Dafoe. Undeniably, a part of Oldman’s winning streak for his latest performance is that he is considered one of the best actors who doesn’t have an Oscar, but I’m confused by why that sentiment hasn’t worked in Dafoe’s favor. Unlike Rockwell’s character, there’s no big stunt or self-humiliation in Dafoe’s role. Just a real man trying to do his job and do what’s best for the tenants of his Florida motel and Dafoe does it so perfectly that I’m shocked he hasn’t been a threat. If Oldman is going to win his first Oscar tonight, then so should Dafoe.

Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Will win: Allison Janney. While it’s not my absolute favorite performance in this bunch, I’m still really happy Janney is going to win. She’s loved by fans and industry people alike, and she’s finally got her nomination. Janney is undoubtedly great as Tonya Harding’s unnecessarily tough and abusive mother, and I will be excited to see her hold her Oscar.

Should win: Laurie Metcalf. Janney is terrific in I, Tonya, but her character was very one-note. Metcalf, on the other hand, gives a spot-on performance of a mom who wants the best for her teenage daughter. She gives such a multi-layered performance it doesn’t make sense that she’s not going to win. I’m crossing my fingers for a surprise win.

Director

Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

Will win: Guillermo del Toro. This is will be an unsurprising and rightful win. Del Toro put a twist on the star-crossed love story we all know by creating it in a magical to take place in. And who doesn’t love Guillermo?

Should win: All. I don’t think it’s that controversial, but I would genuinely be pleased with any of the nominees winning. Even though I didn’t love Dunkirk, I still recognize that what Nolan did was incredible. There’s really no going wrong in this category.

Original Screenplay

The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh

Will win: Get Out. Peele is a genius. He should win.

Should win: Lady Bird. Gerwig is a genius. She should win.

Through my eyes,

Sydney ❤

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